Meet the team behind the paper: Ariane Millot and Pietro Lubello on “The Map Behind the Roadmap”.

A brand-new paper introduces a methodology for energy modelling that is suited specifically to Africa. It integrates geospatial data in energy systems modelling to help guide decisions in wind and solar power siting.

Co-lead author, Ariane Millot, explains: “Most energy systems studies have been carried out in Europe and North America, and tend to include questions based on the context there, with mature electricity grids and established energy markets. Africa’s context is different and the ‘one size fits all’ approach might produce inaccurate scenarios and hamper accurate planning there.”

Co-lead author, Pietro Lubello, adds “The African continent faces unique challenges compared to other regions, among which are the need for an increase in basic energy access generally and an expansion of the power grid. Including geospatial data is essential for modelling in African countries because they are trying to decide whether to build wind and solar plants closer to the existing infrastructure or to extend the grid while looking for renewable “goldmines” elsewhere. So, they need the most accurate analysis to base this important investment decision on.”

Ariane adds: “In our approach, we include several geospatially distinct solar and wind clusters, each having different overall strength, diverging spatial extent, distinct temporal profiles, and varying grid connection costs, depending on their remoteness. Our approach also factors in various topographical and land use-related constraints. These enabled us to provide geospatially relevant roadmaps for power system expansion.”

The paper, entitled “The map behind the roadmap – Introducing a geospatial energy model for utility-scale solar and wind power buildout in Kenya” was written by Ariane Millot, Pietro Lubello, Dimitrios Mentis, Michelle Akute, Martin Mutembei, Elizabeth Tennyson Sebastian Sterl, Adam Hawkes, and Steve Pye. It is the result of a close collaboration between CCG, WRI, and Kenyan institutions, ensuring that the views and needs of in-country stakeholders are better embedded in the modelling process. It is published by Cell Press online today.  

The paper is built on models previously co-developed by CCG and Kenyan stakeholders and documents the application of this new methodology in Kenya, finding that solar and wind resources, coupled with batteries, could constitute the backbone of a diversified power system. The optimal selection of sites was driven by an analysis and evaluation of factors such as resource strength, distance from the grid, and temporal profiles, proving the added value of introducing explicit geospatial information in energy system models.  Geospatial data is available for the entire African continent so this approach could be applied in any of its countries.