This article is the first in a four-part series introducing CCG’s new modelling suite for decarbonisation finance planning. Here, Hannah Luscombe introduces MINFin, a model developed to help governments and development partners assess whether national energy plans, aligned with climate and development goals, are financially viable.
Background
Energy system models are widely used to inform power sector planning by identifying least-cost technology pathways. However, these tools rarely address a critical question: how will the chosen pathway be financed? Without a financial lens, even the most technically sound plans can be unimplementable. MINFin fills this gap by translating the technical outputs of energy plans into financial terms, helping users understand whether investment strategies are not only technically sound but also economically sustainable.
MINFin – the Model for Informed National Financing – is a new open-source tool developed by researchers at the University of Oxford and Imperial College London through the Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) programme. It is specifically designed for low- and middle-income countries, where financial constraints and public sector exposure to energy sector risk can present significant barriers to the implementation of transition plans.
What MINFin Does and Why It Matters
MINFin is an Excel-based sector cashflow model which projects how much it will cost to build an energy system, how much it will cost to finance that build, based on real world interest rates, and how much revenue the system is likely to generate. By comparing revenues with financing costs, it helps identify financing gaps and allows users to explore strategies to close them – whether by implementing strategies to increase revenues, approaches to reduce costs, or a combination of both.
MINFin is intended to:
- Strengthen collaboration between technical and financial decision-makers
- Enable governments to assess the fiscal impact of energy transition plans
- Support dialogue with development partners on finance mobilization strategies.
Key features of the model include:
- Flexibility to reflect country-specific data and financing assumptions
- A transparent structure to support policy engagement and sensitivity analysis
- A focus on national-scale impacts, including public debt and sector revenues.
Application
The tool is already being applied in Zambia, where it is supporting the development of a financing strategy for the country’s Integrated Resource Plan.
Based on technical plans developed using OSeMOSYS, MINFin is being used to gain a comprehensive understanding by addressing several key questions:
- How much investment is needed for the energy projects?
- What are the potential ways to finance these projects?
- Will revenues from electricity tariffs be sufficient to cover the project costs?
- Is the projected cash flow viable for attracting investment?
- How could different IRP scenarios affect Zambia’s national budget and debt?
- What risks arise from factors like foreign exchange rates, and how can they be mitigated?
MINFin is also being connected with other tools developed under the CCG programme, including FinTrack, which tracks how much concessional finance (such as low-interest loans and grants) is available to Zambia’s power sector. This helps set realistic limits on how much external support might be available for the IRP. MINFin is also being linked with FINPLAN, a tool used to analyse the financial performance of individual energy projects which can then be aggregated in MINFin to provide a holistic view of the sector.
By combining these insights, MINFin is providing decision-makers with a clearer picture of which parts of the energy plan are financially viable and where additional support is needed, helping to align national goals with practical financing options.
Try It Out
To support wider adoption, MINFin is available as an open-source model on GitHub, accompanied by a free online course through OpenLearn. The course provides guided instruction on how to use and adapt the model to different contexts, making it accessible to planners, analysts, and policymakers alike.
By bridging the gap between technical planning and financial strategy, MINFin contributes to more credible, finance-ready national energy transitions. It is particularly valuable for countries aiming to align their climate and development ambitions with sustainable financing approaches.
DOWNLOAD THE MODEL: https://github.com/MINFinModel/MINFin-Excel/tree/main?tab=readme-ov-file
DOWNLOAD THE COURSE: https://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/course/view.php?id=14218
Find the new course Financial Modelling for Energy Transitions MINFin, FinTrack & FinCoRE here https://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/course/view.php?id=14218