Robust Decision Making Toolkit
Background
While all countries face the urgent challenge of climate change, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) encounter even greater obstacles. Launched in 2021, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO)’s Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) programme supports LMICs in strengthening climate action and mobilising finance to shift investment pathways. CCG develops open-source analytical tools, datasets and modelling workflows – including OSeMOSYS and CLEWs (Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems) – and creates research with local partners to support national energy and climate planning.
OSeMOSYS and CLEWs, integrated with Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) techniques, help governments navigate the uncertainties inherent in long-term planning for climate, energy, power systems, and water. These approaches identify strategies that are resilient across a wide range of plausible futures, adaptive as conditions evolve, and co-created with the institutions responsible for implementing them. Previous work led by Professor Jairó Quirós-Tortós, Deputy Director of CCG and Professor of Practice – Sustainable Transitions, has established the analytical foundation for national climate finance across more than 20 countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa, including Botswana, Zambia, and South Africa, informing over $11 billion in climate finance in partnership with multilateral development banks.
Robust Decision Making (RDM) is central to this capability: a transparent way to stress-test strategies across thousands of plausible futures rather than relying on a single forecast. Building on CCG’s deliberative-modelling best practice (Plazas-Niño et al. 2025), Professor Jairó is leading the development of an open-access, model-agnostic RDM toolkit and workflow that connects scenario generation, exploratory modelling, vulnerability discovery, and trade-off visualisation, with open Python and Jupyter components that are model-agnostic by design. This is done by coupling to any energy or CLEWs-type model through a standard interface, rather than being tied to a single modelling framework.
The initial phase delivers one practical RDM workflow, a limited set of open software tools, two worked examples, introductory teaching material, and testing, release, and documentation – designed as a reusable global public good and to support HMG (including DESNZ) and international partners in stress-testing net-zero and energy-security strategies.
The RDM Implementation Specialist we are seeking will provide senior technical oversight for the design and implementation of the RDM workflow.
Objective of the Assignment
To provide senior technical leadership for the design and implementation of the RDM workflow and methodology, ensuring analytical rigour, model-agnostic applicability, and direct relevance to policy use by HMG (including DESNZ) and international partners. The Implementation Specialist sets the technical direction that the Developer and Capacity-Building roles deliver against.
Scope of Work
The consultant will be responsible for:
- RDM Methodology and Workflow Design – Design the end-to-end RDM workflow – scenario generation, exploratory modelling, vulnerability discovery (e.g. scenario discovery / PRIM), and robustness and trade-off metrics with supporting visualisation – consistent with CCG’s deliberative-modelling best practice and treating models as decision-support tools.
- Model Integration Oversight – Specify how the workflow couples to energy models through a standard input/output contract that works with any energy or CLEWs-type model (e.g. OSeMOSYS, MESSAGE, TIMES, PyPSA) rather than any single framework thus defining data requirements and standards for reproducibility and for documenting assumptions and limitations.
- Technical Leadership and Quality Assurance – Provide technical direction to the RDM Developer and Capacity-Building lead, review their outputs, and assure methodological quality across the toolkit, worked examples, and teaching material.
- Policy Relevance and HMG/DESNZ Outreach – Ensure the workflow can stress-test UK net-zero and energy-security plans against market and technology shocks; contribute to executive policy briefs and demonstration workshops; and support engagement with DESNZ and international partner institutions.
- Release Governance – Oversee testing, open-source licensing and release, and documentation standards so that outputs function as a credible, reusable global public good.
Expected Deliverables
The consultant will deliver the following (timelines to be confirmed on contracting):
| Deliverable | Description | Timeline |
| RDM methodology and workflow specification | A documented, model-agnostic RDM workflow specification covering scenario generation, exploratory modelling, vulnerability discovery, and robustness/trade-off metrics. | [Month 1] |
| Model-integration and interface specification | Specification of a model-agnostic coupling (a standard input/output contract) that works with any energy/CLEWs-type model, including data requirements and reproducibility standards. | [Month 2] |
| Review automated testing and reproducible configuration | Review the test suite and reproducible run configuration under version control, validated against the worked examples. | [Month 3] |
| QA sign-off across RDM outputs | Reviewed and quality-assured toolkit, worked examples, and teaching material against the agreed methodology. | [Month 3] |
| Policy brief / DESNZ demonstration input | Technical input to an executive policy brief and a demonstration of RDM stress-testing relevant to UK net-zero and energy-security decisions. | [Month 3] |
Coordination and Oversight
The assignment is led and delivered by the STEER Centre, Loughborough University, with the oversight of Prof Jairó Quirós-Tortós, and forms part of the RDM workstream within CCG. The consultant will work closely with Prof Jairó Quirós-Tortós, participate in regular technical reviews, and coordinate with the other RDM roles (Implementation Specialist, Developer, and Capacity-Building lead) to ensure the toolkit, worked examples, and teaching materials remain aligned. Deliverables will be subject to quality-assurance review before open-source release.
Duration and Commitment
The assignment covers an estimated 65 days within the current financial year, with start and end dates to be confirmed at contracting. The consultant is expected to be available for scheduled technical reviews and, where relevant, demonstration workshops. Flexibility to respond to iterative feedback is essential; a stretch phase (subject to further funding) may extend the work into a fuller technical package and international training pilot.
Required Qualifications
The consultant should have the following qualifications:
- MSc or equivalent senior experience in energy systems, environmental science, engineering, or a closely related quantitative field.
- Deep expertise in Robust Decision Making (RDM) / Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU), including scenario generation, exploratory modelling, and vulnerability/scenario-discovery methods.
- Strong command of energy and CLEWs-type modelling (e.g. OSeMOSYS) and how decision-support workflows couple to such models.
- A track record of analysis that has informed national climate policy or finance, ideally with ministries or multilateral development banks.
- Experience engaging policy and analytical audiences (e.g. DESNZ / HMG or equivalent) and translating technical results for decision-makers.
- Ability to lead a small technical team and assure the quality of open, reproducible research outputs.
Expressions of interest – please submit the following:
- A CV
- A support statement providing detailed evidence of meeting the mandatory requirements for the position
- Confirmation that you have or are able to obtain professional insurance cover
Please submit your expression of interest to Clare McGuire on C.McGuire@lboro.ac.uk by 5pm on 30 October 2026.