Future Scenarios for Transport and Energy Transitions in Zambia: Participatory Scenarios for Policy and Planning (Authors: Pierard, Msoni, Mututwa, Shingwele, Dixon, Afifah, Ng’andu, Mvula, Schwanen)

Key Transport and Energy Pathways Takeaways

• Zambia’s energy−transport planning is constrained by the dominance of existing road infrastructure, unregulated transport, and a climate-vulnerable energy mix.
• The two scenarios from the participatory workshop explore opportunities and challenges in Zambia’s transport future and serve as basis for modelling.
• Sustainable outcomes depend on integrating effective governance with inclusive planning—not just on financing or income—since high growth pathways still produce traffic congestion and emissions.
• Trade-offs must be managed: expanding electricity for clean transport requires balancing grid reliability and affordability for existing users.
• Participatory scenario-building facilitates stakeholder alignment, fills data gaps for modelling, and helps to stress-test policies and long-term planning.